The images of 24 February 2022 will stay with us forever. Despite the scale of Vladimir Putin’s military manoeuvres over the past year on the Ukrainian border, the scenario that is currently unfolding before our eyes seemed difficult to imagine until recently for most observers.
But the war is real. And we are now witnessing a crisis that has sent more than three million refugees on the road in less than a month. Beyond the humanitarian tragedy, this conflict is taking place during a time of high inflation, and its consequences limit our short-term visibility.
In order to gain a better understanding, we will try to focus on the various possible scenarios, but also on the economic and financial consequences of the conflict and the position of the central banks.