Outlook 2023 – Q1

Outlook 2023 – Q1

The temptation of soft-landing

The temptation of soft-landing

In 2022, the eyes of investors have been very often drawn to central bank rates. These were simply a response to an urgent situation: to stem the rise in inflation, which was threatening to become endemic. The inflation levels observed during the year have left their mark and, most importantly, triggered a wave of rate rises by our central bankers that we have rarely seen before.

US inflation reached 9.1% in June and then fell marginally to 7.1% in November. Eurozone inflation reached a maximum level of 10.6% in October before falling back to 10.1% in November. Over the year, US central bank rates rose from 0.25% to 4.5% in a few months, and the ECB too woke up from a long period of hibernation. Putting an end to its negative rates policy, its refinancing rates reached 2.5% in December.

It was therefore a year of monetary policy – something that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict did not predict in the slightest.

We are likely to see the consequences of these monetary policies in the first quarter of 2023: there will probably be an economic slowdown and it is necessary at this stage to judge how deep it will be before deciding on the right investment policy to deal with it. Investors are swinging between soft-landing and hard-landing.

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