The second quarter was enough to surprise even the most pessimistic market observers. A banking crisis hit in March, paralysing a number of US regional banks and raising questions about the capitalisation of others. However, twelve days after it began, the crisis came to an end, and for those who had seen it as the tipping point for a downward cycle, it meant bloodshed. The market regained its colours, ushering in a phase of recovery that would last almost until the last days of the quarter.
There was no need to read any economic phenomenon into this: it was a textbook case of sentiment reversal. The liquidation of bearish bets has accelerated the speed of the rally, and markets that have been less well treated since the start of the year – such as US tech – are back in investors’ favour.
Farewell to rotation, rate hikes are a thing of the past in the light of these US companies’ excellent results, and hello to a rally that is beginning to smell of market exaggeration. The figures speak for themselves: in Q2, the S&P500 rose by more than 5% and the Nasdaq by more than 10%, taking their respective performances over the year to 13% and 29%.