The decrease in the number of victims that we see today seems to be due to two main factors: first, better preparation and management of serious cases by the hospitals; secondly, a lower total number of contaminations even if the figure is not verifiable, because the test policy is less sustained during the second wave than during the first.
While this finding is encouraging from a health perspective, it is not enough to rule out any risk of local or generalised confinement, the impact of which can be significant for economic activity as well as for market volatility.
However, the main cause of the establishment of confinement is directly linked to the occupancy rate of intensive and resuscitation units by patients suffering from COVID-19. Governments in several countries have said this over and over again.
However, it is almost impossible to frequently retrieve this data, so we cannot rely on it to anticipate the establishment of a new confinement.