The second quarter of the year was marked by the gradual reopening of many economies and a recovery in activity that was stronger than expected. This recovery was driven by a demand shock and continued accommodative central bank policies, despite inflationary pressure caused by a delay in supply.
These dynamics are in sharp contrast with those observed during the two middle quarters of 2020, which were described as disinflationary periods, as they were characterised by a sharp reduction in demand.
Compared to other crises, the pandemic we are experiencing allows us in any case to measure one important aspect: the very rapid transition of economic and market regimes. This observation raises several questions. Which part of the cycle are we in? What impact is the current situation having on the dynamics of monetary policies, especially that of the Fed? What allocations should be made in this environment?