If we had to choose one word to describe the past month, it would be recalibration. We didn’t see a crash or a boom, but rather a thoughtful pause where the market took a deep breath and reassessed its assumptions. On the macro front, the noise from the resolved US government shutdown has started to fade, allowing us to refocus on the data which remains mixed.

We witnessed a complete roundtrip in expectations of rate cut: the probability of a December cut collapsed early in the month, only to surge back to around 80% by month-end as dovish comments from Fed officials soothed markets’ nerves. This oscillation has been a key driver of volatility, reminding us that while the destination (lower rates) is likely, the path there is anything but a straight line.​

We will look into why a previously unstoppable sector finally hit a valuation wall despite strong fundamentals, and conversely, how a diplomatic breakthrough removed a major economic cloud over Europe. Additionally, we will examine the growing disparity in emerging markets, where the fortunes of energy importers and exporters are diverging sharply as commodity supply dynamics shift.

We hope you enjoy reading these updates and find them helpful for the month ahead.