June was anything but quiet, yet markets chose to look through the noise. Global equities added another 4-5% for the month, pushing the MSCI ACWI to a double-digit gain year-to-date even as headline volatility spiked around Middle-East tensions. Credit spreads compressed and liquidity remained ample, underscoring that financial conditions are looser than the policy debate would suggest.

Under the surface, the macro picture keeps evolving. Disinflation is gathering pace across most developed economies while the Fed stays on hold at 4.50%, opting to monitor the knock-on effects of shifting tariffs. In contrast, the SNB and ECB have already trimmed rates, signaling a tentative turn toward easier policy in Europe. Growth remains resilient, just resilient enough, helping earnings expectations stabilize despite soft manufacturing surveys.

Meanwhile the “America First – Dollar Second” narrative is gaining traction. The US dollar lost nearly 10% this year before briefly bouncing on the Iran scare, only to resume its slide as fiscal risk stole the spotlight. Commodities told their own roller-coaster story: the price of oil spiked past $80 on the initial headlines and then closed the month below $70, while gold set fresh highs above $3’300 as investors hunted for hedges.

We hope you enjoy reading and find these updates helpful for the month ahead.