Think back! In 2001, Goldman Sachs economist Jim O’Neill coined a new concept for emerging countries, whose growth would eventually challenge the hegemony of the advanced G7 economies. Originally formed by Brazil, Russia, India and China – then joined in 2011 by South Africa – the BRICS group has been steadily increasing its influence on all fronts, thanks to the economic, demographic, political and military growth of its members. On the eve of their 15th summit, to be held in Durban in August 2023, these new powers are weighing ever more heavily in the balance of international relations, to the point of upsetting the established order by offering the world an alternative to the Western model.

Africa: a new land of confrontation

Since the end of colonization, the West has been slowly but surely disengaging from Africa. This trend has opened up ever-widening gaps on the continent, into which China is happily rushing, investing massively in infrastructure works such as freeways and ports, essential for the transport of goods. And all this despite concerns about human rights. Russia, for its part, has maintained a historic influence on countries such as Algeria, Egypt, Morocco and South Africa, but not only there. Its influence extends beyond these countries. And it takes advantage of its privileged ties to export arms, grain, nuclear technology and petroleum products to many other countries. With the continent expected to grow to 2 billion people by 2050, importing grain from Russia is also – and increasingly – a priority. A crucial lever used by the Moscow government to attract nations to its side in the Ukrainian crisis.
It’s also worth noting that Russia’s assertiveness also extends to the African continent through its paramilitary groups, the most famous of which, the Wagner Group, supports various factions and governments. Their presence in Libya, the Central African Republic and Mali, where Wagner has replaced the French army stationed in the country for several years, is the most telling example.

Competing institutional tools

The BRICS are also shaking up Western habits by putting their own tools in competition with the institutions born of the Bretton Woods agreements, such as the IMF and the World Bank. A case in point is the creation in 2015 of the New Development Bank (NDB), a bank set up by the BRICS for the BRICS. The member countries of this financial organization consider the IMF to be too biased and intrusive when loans are at stake. They also fear that the biggest contributors, such as the USA, will interfere in their domestic politics to push through this or that reform. According to some sources, discussions are even underway to bring new countries on board. These include Afghanistan, Algeria, Argentina, Egypt, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Nicaragua, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Senegal.

The Western model in question?

Much more than an economic union, the BRICS group also has its own views on world order. Scalded by the “unilateralist” interventions of the USA and NATO in the Middle East and elsewhere, these states are campaigning for greater multilateralism. On the diplomatic front, China seems to be imposing its foreign policy more aggressively. The Middle Kingdom is thus establishing itself as a real rival to current unilateralism. It is even pushing certain countries to distance themselves from the positions and pressures of their American big brother. In this sense, the diplomatic rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran orchestrated by Beijing was certainly felt as a slap in the face by the White House.

The global balance is shifting. The long-dormant powers now seem to be waking up and seeking to take their rightful place. We can also see that globalization, which was supposed to bring peace and stability to the world, is now seizing up. The COVID-19 pandemic has obviously had a hand in this, since it has revealed numerous flaws in our dependencies, particularly those linked to supply chain circuits.

While the old powers seek to hold on to their privileges against all odds, the new powers seek to gain ground. In this tense context, are we heading for an even more open confrontation? Hardly anyone can say. One thing is certain, however: the question deserves to be asked… and the answer quickly found.