June rewarded patience over prediction.
The Iran ceasefire pulled the Middle East risk premium out of oil and gold almost as fast as it went in, and risk sentiment came back with it. Stocks rallied on the relief, with European equities rallying the most since the region is more exposed to oil prices.
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On the surface, markets looked fine: indices near record highs, earnings strong, the kind of numbers that make it tempting to stop asking questions. But the more you look at what drove those returns, the less straightforward the picture becomes.
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April was a reminder that war rarely moves markets the way textbooks predict.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz should, by any traditional reading, have spelled trouble for risk assets. It did, briefly. What happened next is more surprising, and more instructive, than the initial shock.
